December 2007
Overview
You can bet the consumer is going to feel tapped out this holiday season, but all is not bleak for the retail sector. While the collective 'head' knows these are the days when capital preservation is a necessity, there is also a very traditional and sentimental urge to nurture ones' significant others via the bestowal of stuff. Key here for sellers is the awareness that the stuff should be practical (i.e. legitimately useful) and be available at value pricing.
Businesses may help dispel some of the dollar darkness by focussing on the grace that exists in meaningful relationships. Kindness and concern for others will have particular resonance this holiday season, and those enterprises that are inclined to charity and good works will find themselves spared the charge of opportunism that sometimes attaches itself to generous gestures. This is one of those times when the unexpected acts of the 'angels' will strike a particularly empathic chord in the world at large.
As we are hardly all angels, however, smart executives will be on guard against attacks from competitors this month. Keep an eye on traditional foes...but be particularly aware that the most desperate assaults are likely going to come from unexpected and perhaps even unimagined sources. Trust your deepest hunches...and remember that forewarned is forearmed.
History Rhymes
Mr. Holland's Opus - In the midst of a world gone mad for speed and stuff, the image of an individual patiently and nobly devoted to a life's work has meaning this month. Unassuming mentors who counsel a steady climb on the long path may actually be heard amidst the general cultural din right now. But keep in mind that a mentor without an honorable heart and some genuine wisdom to impart is just another pedagoue.
Gas Crunch - This period is historically resonant with the depths of the oil shortage caused by the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Keep in mind that anyone under the age of 30 has no strong recollection of waiting on angry mile long lines at gas stations for the right to purchase half a tank of gas. We may not have to go through all that particular pain again, but December 2007 has a very pronouced oil stain.
Tiananmen Square - Those of us in the West really have no idea whether 200 died, or 2,000. We would also be hard pressed to state exactly the cause for which those Chinese citizens---and it was not just students---perished at their government's hands. But at least one journalist had a sign translated for him, and it read: "We love truth more than rice." How much democracy is worth to any of us may prove an unavoidable question right now.
Strange Days
December 11 - If a power play is in the cards, and you are the one to initiate it, this is the day to turn resistance into dust. This is Popeye 10 seconds after he's swallowed the spinach. Just remember, though, canned spinach is shipped throughout the world by the case.
December 18 - This is an important turning point day that will help usher in an era that is likely to last for multiple decades! Thematically, we are coming to an end of an era of global expansion and one of contraction. The keynotes for the years ahead are 'resources' and 'management.'
December 26 - Here's a very specific prediction, albeit not a happy one. This is going to be one of the biggest downer day-after-Christmas days in recent memory. Whatever it is we wanted still seems very remote. Merchandise returns, alas, should set records.
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